除了币安（Binance）币圈最危险的大麻烦：稳定币USDT
除了币安 （Binance），币圈最危险的大麻烦：稳定币USDT
摘要：市场最大的担忧是Tether声称的USDT“几乎总是”价值1美元，主要担忧在“几乎”二字上。换言之，市场担忧的是，作为USDT的发行人，Tether是否真的预留了足够的资产来确保其与美元挂钩的安全。
World Bank slashes China growth forecasts
World Bank slashes China growth forecasts
TUE, DEC 20, 2022 - 02:05 PM
In a statement, the institution slashed its forecast to 2.7 per cent from 4.3 per cent predicted in June.
It also revised its forecast for next year from 8.1 per cent down to 4.3 per cent.
Both figures are well below Beijing’s stated gross domestic product (GDP) growth target for this year of around 5.5 per cent, a figure many analysts believe is now unattainable.
“Economic activity in China continues to track the ups and downs of the pandemic — outbreaks and growth slowdowns have been followed by uneven recoveries,” the World Bank said in a press release.
“Real GDP growth is projected to reach 2.7 per cent this year, before recovering to 4.3 per cent in 2023, amid a reopening of the economy.”
明年經濟真的沒救？
明年經濟真的沒救？分析師罕見預言1件事：死限快到了
美國聯準會上周四升息2碼，幅度比之前的3碼還要低一些，但美國銀行分析師仍認為此跡象不足以改變明年第一季陷入經濟衰退的預測，且明年美國全年GDP將會出現負數，整體經濟環境將持續受到升息的衝擊。
綜合外媒報導，聯準會宣布升息2碼，符合年初市場推估今年升息7次的預測，但2碼幅度也中止連續4次劇烈升息3碼的趨勢，但整體升息環境仍未改變，主席鮑爾更暗示要等到2024年才會降息，引發美股出現崩跌。
即使升息幅度趨緩，但美國銀行分析師發布最新報告指出，「我們的經濟學家對於明年美國經濟的狀況仍相當保守，預計明年第一季出現溫和衰退，全年GDP恐出現負數。」
此外，美國銀行分析師也預估明年美股將暴跌36%，但仍有三類型的股票值得關注，包括績優股、高息股及中小型股票，而非投資人相當喜愛的成長股，主要原因在於，處在高利率環境，公司市值將受到衝擊。
美銀也認為，Meta及谷歌母公司Alphabe是成長股中，最有可能應付潛在經濟衰退的股票，即使廣告收入下滑，但可以透過投資收益、資產靈活能力，躲過輕度、中度的經濟衰退危機。
後話
如果「美國銀行分析師也預估明年美股將暴跌36%」，前文香港新聞內港專家所預測的明年香港恆指會升至倆萬五千點有可能嗎？
明年恆指有望重回25000點?
am730 2022-12-20 13:00:00
環球加息無疑令股樓市投資氣氛淡靜，政策加上疫情，亦令香港經濟陷入泥沼。2023年將至，面對現時漫長的熊市，由招銀國際證券有限公司主辦，受惠機構國際獅子會的《2023股市樓市否極泰來，入市好時機？》慈善‧投資策略研討會，已於上周六於尖沙咀美麗華酒店順利舉行。會上由招銀國際環球市場研究部策略師蘇沛豐主持，回顧及分析市況，同場又邀請著名資深股評人陳永陸(陸叔)與中原集團創辦人施永青，分別就股票與地產角度，剖析後市走勢，為大眾拆解迷思。
蘇沛豐：港股明年上旬表現較佳 恆指上望23,500點感樂觀
蘇沛豐跟據過往數據，指出恆指由去年2月的31,183點高位，滑落至今年10月的14,597低位，認為此輪熊市持續時間為20個月，跌幅達53%，時間遠超歷史平均值。然而他認為恆指已見底，根據彭博及招銀國際環球市場的數據作技術分析，表示近期恆指已升穿頭肩底線與下降軌，技術上視為熊市結束，市場正穩步重回牛市。「展望明年上旬，港股盈利將回復增長，預計恒指之估值僅能回升至平均值，亦即2023年預測市盈率11.4倍，故樂觀認為恆指目標應能達至23,500點。」美股方面，他又表示明年為拜登任期第三年，歷史上總統傾向於任期後半推出財政刺激及寬鬆貨幣政策，以爭取連任支持。而大多數評論認為美國加息周期近尾聲，因為經濟面臨衰退已超越加息負荷，美元在上月已率先回落轉呈弱勢，美元兌人民幣已跌穿升軌，代表人民幣轉強。「中美經濟周期出現差異，中國經濟拐點較美國早出現，中國之盈利增速位居前列，市盈率則偏低，利好中國經濟發展。」對於中國經濟復甦與美國利率近頂，他預料港股明年上旬較佳，美股則下旬有所改善，建議偏好增長股如互聯網、醫療及消費等投資配置。
陸叔：今次熊市跟97至03年雷同 呼籲投資應選股
陸叔強調根據圖表技術分析，認同蘇沛豐的講法。他尤其指出今次熊市的情況，不少因素跟97年金融風暴至2003年長時間熊市周期類似，更認為早在2018年已開始。「中美貿易戰爆發，恆指由33,484點的歷史高位開始下探，雖然中間經歷數次技術性反彈，例如科網股的過高市脹率托市，情況有點像千禧年的.COM科技股熱潮。然而去年科網股爆破，重磅恆指成分股如騰訊、美團等大跌，拖累恆指跌勢加劇。」他表示根據圖表分析，樂觀認為後市會反彈，牛市會重臨，目標最遲2024年首季恆指能有望重上25,000點。針對投資，陸叔看好內銀的穩派息與保險類前景，但強調投資者要審慎選股，而非跟隨大市短炒投機。
施永青：去全球化 香港基本因素面臨考驗
雖然從技術分析可看到股市一片曙光，惟輪到施老闆分析市況走勢時，卻難掩悲觀看法。他重申一個地區的樓價升跌，取決於該城市的生產力和經濟發展，「但現時香港樓市的情況已撇除技術因素，是香港基本因素出現問題。」他續指以往香港的經濟地位迎合全球化格局，然而近年美國制約中國，大搞地緣政治，「去全球化」削弱香港的中西接壤的中間人定位與功能。「單靠香港走入大灣區『內循環』，無法跟國內企業競爭。」呼籲香港應把握中國給予的資本主義，繼續做好與西方發達國家的關係，在環球格局變化的同時，仍能發揮其主要功能。
說到樓市發展，施老闆特別提到現時香港的人口結構問題，「有人口增長，才會有置業需要。但近年社會狀況令至少十多萬中產年輕階層移民，反而增加賣盤；加上今年美元多次加息，增加供款成本，大減買樓意欲。」他認為今年第四季樓市下滑速度加快，跌勢一旦形成後，市場便會自我完成，綜觀今年整體樓價將跌一成半或以上。幸好近期市場有兩個利好消息，「第一是美息幾近見頂，因為最近一次聯儲局議息已趨溫和，面對美國經濟衰退，有望明年下旬或最遲2024年初，利率必須回落。」至於第二點，施老闆認為近期中國對疫情的處理更科學化，更符合現實，有利經濟復甦。他總結隨著明年內地通關，有望人員與資金流通，方向上帶動香港經濟環境好轉，長遠才能對樓市有利。他認為現時樓市跌勢已喘定，即使未來經濟轉好，樓價也難重搭拾以往的高位。
以上主講嘉賓論述屬個人見解，並不代表招銀國際證券有限公司立場。
後話
明年2023上旬恆指目標應能達至23,500點？或要等到2024年首季恆指可會升至25,000點？拭目以待！
個人認為恆指在2023年首季仍在萬九點內浮沉。
北水3交易日後再見淨流出 恒指跌258點
【北水走向】北水3交易日後再見淨流出 港股通成交錄3日淨沽出 買旭輝小鵬汽車碧桂園 沽騰訊快手美團
HKET 即時行情
19:43 2022/12/20
12月20日 (星期二)港股通相隔3個交易日後, 再見淨流出, 以半日報價流入18.30億元人民幣計，下午時段流出19.68億元人民幣，恒指跌258點。港股通滬深成交錄淨沽出20.73億元，已是連續3個交易日錄淨沽出。
港股通（滬）十大成交活躍股有5隻錄得淨流入, 有5隻錄得淨流出。另外, 港股通（深）十大成交活躍股有6隻錄得淨流入, 有4隻錄得淨流出。
Basel Committee Finalizes Rules for Bank Exposure to Cryptocurrency Assets
Basel Committee Finalizes Rules for Bank Exposure to Cryptocurrency Assets
The Basel Committee, the organization in charge of setting global bank standards, has finalized its new rules related to banks and cryptocurrency exposure. The document establishes two different crypto asset classes, including tokenized real assets and stablecoins in one, and other cryptocurrencies in another, discriminating on the collateral and quantity that banks might hold for each one.
Basel Committee Defines Final Rules for Crypto Exposure
As banks have stepped into the realm of cryptocurrency services, standards organizations are now defining the ways in which traditional financial institutions will be able to hold crypto. The Basel Committee, which is the standards-setting organization for banks at a worldwide level, has finalized the rules which will define requirements for banks to be allowed to have cryptocurrency exposure, dividing the assets into two different groups.
The first group includes stablecoins and tokenized assets, while the second one includes other cryptocurrencies.
Among the new directives announced on Dec. 16 by the institution, is the establishment of the maximum amount of crypto that banks can have. This is recommended to be 1% of their Tier 1 capital, which includes the core assets of such institutions such as reserves and stocks. However, the Basel Committee sets 2% as the maximum amount of crypto that banks will be able to hold.
Stablecoins, which are part of the first group, have to comply with strict rules to be considered as such, and will not be able to be received as collateral.
Evolution of the Framework
This new group of rules is the result of the third consultation among members of the group, after receiving heavy criticism for some of the decisions adopted as part of the second iteration of this ruleset, that was published on June 30. For example, the most recent version of the document includes cryptocurrency asset hedging, and sets a 100% capital charge for it, while in the earlier version there was no mention of this.
About the importance of this crypto framework, Pablo Hernandez de Cos, chairman of the Basel Committee and Governor of the Bank of Spain, stated:
The Committee’s standard on cryptoassets is a further example of our commitment, willingness and ability to act in a globally coordinated way to mitigate emerging financial stability risks.
In October, the Basel Committee determined that banks around the world were exposed to $9 billion worth of cryptocurrency assets.
The cryptocurrency-related rules will begin to be applied on Jan. 1, 2025, and will be subject to more changes as the committee monitors the behavior of the crypto situation with banks.
比特幣前景？
Bitcoin falls to lowest this month; dogecoin plunges 5%. Check cryptocurrency prices today
2 min read . 08:38 AM IST
- The global cryptocurrency market cap today was down over a per cent in the last 24 hours to $841 billion
In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin price dropped to its lowest level in three weeks with the world's largest and most popular digital token trading more than a per cent lower at $16,764. The global cryptocurrency market cap today remained below the $1 trillion mark, as it was down over a per cent in the last 24 hours to $841 billion, as per the data by CoinGecko.
“Bitcoin traded below the $17,000 level on Monday as prices continued to consolidate following a volatile weekend. BTC is battling with the loss after a bullish momentum post the FOMC’s meeting last week. Bulls must hold the line at around $16,200 to $16,500 to prevent further downside. On the other hand, Ethereum remained unchanged since yesterday, as none of the sides had accumulated enough power to make a sharp move. Any growth would be possible only if the rate fixes above the vital $1,200 zone," said Edul Patel, CEO and Co-founder, Mudrex.
On the other hand, Ether, the coin linked to the ethereum blockchain and the second largest cryptocurrency, was almost flat at $1,193. Meanwhile, dogecoin price today was trading more than 5% lower at $0.07 whereas Shiba Inu was down over 3% at $0.000008.
Other crypto prices' today performance were mixed as Binance USD, Avalanche, Tether, Terra, Solana, Polygon, Stellar, XRP, Cardano, Uniswap, Polkadot prices were trading with cuts over the last 24 hours whereas Litecoin, Chainlink, ApeCoin, Tron were trading with gains.
Cryptocurrencies have had a harsh 2022 after reaching record highs late last year, buffeted by everything from the Fed’s policy tightening to the implosions of the Terra/Luna ecosystem, hedge funds Three Arrows Capital and exchange FTX.
The collapse of FTX last month was the most shocking in a series of closures of key market players this year including Celsius and Voyager, major tokens terraUSD and Luna that have shaken investment sentiment and wiped out $1.5 trillion in cryptocurrency market capitalization.