惠譽料明年港經濟增長2.2%

惠譽料明年香港經濟增長2.2%　惟實際GDP仍不及2018年水平

   香港01  撰文：張偉倫

出版：2022-12-07 

評級機構惠譽（Fitch）指出，經濟及政策不確定性為明年大中華區前景蒙上陰景，預料內地經濟增長從今年的2.8%，明年恢復至4.1%，均遠低於疫情前趨勢。

該行預期香港經濟今年收縮2.8%，明年將增長2.2%，惟香港與澳門實質GDP仍低於2018年水平。

惠譽又預期台灣經濟增長從今年的3.2%放緩至2.1%，很大程度因外需疲弱。

後話

上文源自：

Fitch Ratings-Hong Kong-07 December 2022: Fitch Ratings expects sovereign credit profiles across greater China will continue to benefit from considerable financial buffers, but the near-term economic outlook remains clouded by uncertainty over the implementation of refinements to “zero Covid” and property-sector policies on the mainland, as well as decelerating global growth.

Fitch forecasts growth in mainland China to recover partially to 4.1% in 2023, from 2.8% in 2022, both well below pre-pandemic trends. With social tensions running high, we expect the mainland authorities to retire the most draconian elements of “zero Covid” - such as city-wide lockdowns. However, a fully-fledged policy pivot is not in our baseline, as we believe numerous restrictions will remain in place. Meanwhile, slower global growth will hamper exports, and we see no significant improvement in property developers’ operating environment.

These combined factors will weigh on consumption, business confidence, and constrain the trajectory of mainland China’s economic recovery.

Heightened policy uncertainty and a lacklustre recovery in mainland China, coupled with the global monetary tightening cycle and recessions in the US and Eurozone, will affect growth momentum in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. We forecast growth in Hong Kong at 2.2% in 2023, following a 2.8% contraction in 2022. In Macao, we forecast a 46% rebound, from a 17% decline. Real GDP levels in both economies will remain below those of 2018. We forecast growth in Taiwan will moderate to 2.1%, from 3.2% in 2022, due largely to weaker external demand.

Fitch’s report, “Greater China Outlook 2023”, is available at www.fitchratings.com or by clicking the link.