【明報專訊】HONG KONG's ECONOMIC RECOVERY lacks robustness. A new policy address will be released next Wednesday (25 October). Stimulating the economy has become the most important topic. When it comes to the issue of the property market, there has been a lot of discussion in society in recent months. However, the problems faced by Hong Kong's economy are both cyclical and structural. The decline in the property market is just a symptom. Lifting market-cooling measures to prop up the real estate market is not a panacea for revitalising the economy.
Chief Executive John Lee delivered his first policy address in October after taking office last year. The focus was on the beginning of a new administration and how the Chief Executive would put his election platform and promises into practice to lead Hong Kong into the post-pandemic era. As for the second policy address, were we in an economic boom, it would usually be about progress in policy implementation and the areas where adjustment and optimisation would be needed. Such a policy address would be relatively less important. However, this is not the current situation.
In the budget published at the beginning of this year, it was predicted that Hong Kong's economic growth rate of 3.5% to 5.5% would be recorded for the entire year. However, according to the current trend, even if this target is met ultimately, the growth rate is likely to be near the lower end of the forecast. Hong Kong's post-COVID economic recovery could be considered satisfactory in the first quarter of this year, but it ran out of steam in the second quarter. A significant rebound in the number of tourists during the summer holiday season gave a lift to tourism-related industries. In addition to recent measures to stimulate consumption such as Night Vibes Hong Kong, many analysts believed that Hong Kong's economy will improve in the third and fourth quarters, but the recovery momentum is far from strong. The new policy address must focus on boosting the economy, and all eyes are on how the government will respond to the situation.
Over the past six months, Hong Kong's property market and stock market have been weak. The business community and a number of political parties have repeatedly requested the government to implement measures to prop up the market in recent months. The Task Force on Enhancing Stock Market Liquidity has earlier submitted a report to John Lee, and it is expected that the policy address will touch on the issue of reducing stock stamp duty. As for the property market, it is also widely believed in the industry that the policy address will withdraw the cooling measures.
The West is reversing the progress of globalisation, and the struggle between China and the US is intensifying. In the name of "economic de-risking", Washington is decoupling itself from China in fields such as technology and finance. This is a change in the external political and economic structure. The space for Hong Kong to have it both ways has been greatly reduced. Hong Kong needs to proactively explore new markets and promote economic and industrial diversification so as to reduce dependence on Western markets in the long run. All in all, in order to boost the economy, the government must contemplate problems and study countermeasures from a higher vantage point and a broader perspective. It cannot merely focus on supporting the market.
While the policy address must include measures to stimulate the economy in the short term, it must also take actions that cope with internal and external structural changes. Not only will propping up the market help but also could hinder long-term development if overdone. Hong Kong needs to step up efforts to develop innovation and technology, promote economic transformation, and achieve industrial diversification. Rather than offer all-out support for the property market, the policy address should introduce more measures about speeding up economic transformation and promoting industrial development.
明報社評2023.10.17：施政報告振經濟 不能只聚焦托市
香港經濟復蘇力度不足，新一份《施政報告》下周三（25日）出爐，提振經濟成為最重要課題。有關樓市的問題，近月社會討論甚多，然而本港經濟面臨的問題，既有周期性的部分，亦有結構性的部分，樓市下滑不過是表徵，減辣托市並非振興經濟萬靈丹。
行政長官李家超去年10月發表上任首份施政報告，焦點落在新政府開局，特首如何落實競選方針與承諾，帶領香港走向後疫情時期。第二份施政報告，倘若遇上好景之年，一般就是談談施政進展、哪些地方需要調整優化，重要性相對低一些，然而這可不是目前情况。
今年初《財政預算案》，預測本港經濟全年可錄得3.5%至5.5%增長，惟觀乎走勢，即使最終達標，恐怕也是貼近預測下限。香港疫後經濟復蘇，今年首季尚算理想，但第二季已無以為繼。隨着暑假旅客人數顯著回升，帶動旅遊相關行業，加上最近又有夜繽紛等刺激消費措施，分析估計本港第三及第四季經濟將有所改善，但復蘇勢頭遠遠談不上強勁。新一份施政報告，須以提振經濟為重點，政府有何措施，備受關注。
近半年本港樓市股市疲弱，工商界和多個政黨近月再三要求政府出招托市。促進股票市場流動性專責小組日前已向李家超提交報告，外界估計施政報告將談及降低股票印花稅的問題。樓市方面，市場似乎也普遍認定施政報告將有減辣措施。
西方開全球化倒車，中美鬥爭加劇，華府以「經濟去風險化」之名，在科技、金融等領域行脫鈎之實，則屬外部政經結構轉變，香港左右逢源空間大幅壓縮，需要積極開拓市場、推動經濟產業多元化，長遠減少對西方市場的依賴。總言之，政府提振經濟，必須從更高更闊的角度思考問題、研究對策，不能只將焦點放在托市。
施政報告須有措施刺激短期經濟，同時也要採取行動，應付內外部的結構變化，托市對此不僅幫不上忙，若過度為之，還有可能拖長遠發展後腿。香港需要加大力度發展創科，推動經濟轉型，實現產業多元化。比起「瞓身」托樓市，施政報告應多提措施，加快經濟轉型，推動實業發展。
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