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通關在即樓市現生機?

通關在即樓市現生機?

 HKET    地產10:54 2022/12/20

疫情及加息夾擊下,今年樓市進一步受挫,一二手價量齊跌,有數據更預計,今年全年私人住宅成交登記數字僅錄約4.3萬宗,創約27年來新低。本年至今,樓市及樓價交投可謂跌至谷底,但隨近期陸續有好消息浮現,初步估計樓市在明年初可望逐步轉勢。

美國聯儲局本年連番加息,最新再宣布加息半厘,再有大型銀行跟隨上調最優惠利率。受年初爆發的第5波疫情、附隨的社交距離措施、及加息因素影響,本年樓市受挫。據差估署上月底公布,10月份私人住宅樓價指數報352.4點,指數連跌5個月,並屬2017年12月錄得的352.7點後,即近5年新低。而今年首10個月,樓價已經累積下跌10.54%,如與去年9月的歷史高位398.1點比較,樓價更累跌約11.48%。

而有主要代理行最新預料,今年全年一手私人住宅買賣登記料達1.1萬宗,較去年跌37%。金額則料僅達1,200億元,亦比去年下跌49%,估計成交量及成交金額均創2013年一手新例後的9年新低。

至於二手方面,該行亦預測今年全年二手私人住宅買賣登記僅3.2萬宗,按年下跌38%,交投量創1995年有紀錄以來歷史新低。如計入一二手交投,全年私人住宅成交登記宗數則料錄約4.3萬宗,比去年同樣跌38%,同創95年有紀錄以來歷史新低,成交金額則料4,100億元,較去年跌42%,屬2015年後7年新低。由上述的官方數字及預測可見,本年至今的樓市價量齊跌,暫未有轉勢跡象。

不過,政府在本周初已經公布,放寬部分的防疫措施,包括免除市民掃描「安心出行」及黃碼,令大家的出行更為方便,相信此為放寬更多防疫規限的「好兆頭」。與此同時,有傳媒近日亦引述消息指,中港或可在農曆新年前免除隔離通關,廣深港高鐵最快下月初恢復來往廣東的服務。

行政長官李家超日前亦在個人社交媒體Facebook發文表示,明年與內地有可能實現通關,意味經濟有望逐步恢復常態,預計可刺激內地客來港置業,遂逐步帶動本地樓市交投。雖然該等消息未能即時大力推動樓市,但至少可為樓市帶來希望,逐步振興本地樓市。

記者:潘淑盈


後話

個人認為,即通關也未必可救港樓市,因內地疫情正嚴重化而經濟仍在下滑。

Basel Committee Finalizes Rules for Bank Exposure to Cryptocurrency Assets

Basel Committee Finalizes Rules for Bank Exposure to Cryptocurrency Assets

The Basel Committee, the organization in charge of setting global bank standards, has finalized its new rules related to banks and cryptocurrency exposure. The document establishes two different crypto asset classes, including tokenized real assets and stablecoins in one, and other cryptocurrencies in another, discriminating on the collateral and quantity that banks might hold for each one.

Basel Committee Defines Final Rules for Crypto Exposure

As banks have stepped into the realm of cryptocurrency services, standards organizations are now defining the ways in which traditional financial institutions will be able to hold crypto. The Basel Committee, which is the standards-setting organization for banks at a worldwide level, has finalized the rules which will define requirements for banks to be allowed to have cryptocurrency exposure, dividing the assets into two different groups.

The first group includes stablecoins and tokenized assets, while the second one includes other cryptocurrencies.

Among the new directives announced on Dec. 16 by the institution, is the establishment of the maximum amount of crypto that banks can have. This is recommended to be 1% of their Tier 1 capital, which includes the core assets of such institutions such as reserves and stocks. However, the Basel Committee sets 2% as the maximum amount of crypto that banks will be able to hold.

Stablecoins, which are part of the first group, have to comply with strict rules to be considered as such, and will not be able to be received as collateral.

Evolution of the Framework

This new group of rules is the result of the third consultation among members of the group, after receiving heavy criticism for some of the decisions adopted as part of the second iteration of this ruleset, that was published on June 30. For example, the most recent version of the document includes cryptocurrency asset hedging, and sets a 100% capital charge for it, while in the earlier version there was no mention of this.

About the importance of this crypto framework, Pablo Hernandez de Cos, chairman of the Basel Committee and Governor of the Bank of Spain, stated:

The Committee’s standard on cryptoassets is a further example of our commitment, willingness and ability to act in a globally coordinated way to mitigate emerging financial stability risks.

In October, the Basel Committee determined that banks around the world were exposed to $9 billion worth of cryptocurrency assets.

The cryptocurrency-related rules will begin to be applied on Jan. 1, 2025, and will be subject to more changes as the committee monitors the behavior of the crypto situation with banks.

比特幣前景?

Bitcoin falls to lowest this month; dogecoin plunges 5%. Check cryptocurrency prices today

A representations of cryptocurrencies in this illustration.
A representations of cryptocurrencies in this illustration.
  • The global cryptocurrency market cap today was down over a per cent in the last 24 hours to $841 billion

In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin price dropped to its lowest level in three weeks with the world's largest and most popular digital token trading more than a per cent lower at $16,764. The global cryptocurrency market cap today remained below the $1 trillion mark, as it was down over a per cent in the last 24 hours to $841 billion, as per the data by CoinGecko.

“Bitcoin traded below the $17,000 level on Monday as prices continued to consolidate following a volatile weekend. BTC is battling with the loss after a bullish momentum post the FOMC’s meeting last week. Bulls must hold the line at around $16,200 to $16,500 to prevent further downside. On the other hand, Ethereum remained unchanged since yesterday, as none of the sides had accumulated enough power to make a sharp move. Any growth would be possible only if the rate fixes above the vital $1,200 zone," said Edul Patel, CEO and Co-founder, Mudrex.

On the other hand, Ether, the coin linked to the ethereum blockchain and the second largest cryptocurrency, was almost flat at $1,193. Meanwhile, dogecoin price today was trading more than 5% lower at $0.07 whereas Shiba Inu was down over 3% at $0.000008.

Other crypto prices' today performance were mixed as Binance USD, Avalanche, Tether, Terra, Solana, Polygon, Stellar, XRP, Cardano, Uniswap, Polkadot prices were trading with cuts over the last 24 hours whereas Litecoin, Chainlink, ApeCoin, Tron were trading with gains.

Cryptocurrencies have had a harsh 2022 after reaching record highs late last year, buffeted by everything from the Fed’s policy tightening to the implosions of the Terra/Luna ecosystem, hedge funds Three Arrows Capital and exchange FTX. 

The collapse of FTX last month was the most shocking in a series of closures of key market players this year including Celsius and Voyager, major tokens terraUSD and Luna that have shaken investment sentiment and wiped out $1.5 trillion in cryptocurrency market capitalization.





香港經濟明年有望重拾動力?

港財政司長:香港經濟明年有望重拾動力

香港特區財政司司長陳茂波認為,雖然香港經濟今年面對較大下行壓力,明年仍有望重拾動力。

香港特區政府在官網發出新聞公報宣布,港府星期天(12日18日)就2023/2024度《財政預算案》展開公眾諮詢。

據香港特區財政司官網18日發布的公眾諮詢稿,陳茂波寫道,「今年,受新冠疫情、地緣政治等影響,環球供應鏈受干擾、通膨高、息率升,金融狀況收緊,香港經濟因而面對較大下行壓力,估計收縮3.2%。」

展望明年,陳茂波指外圍環境仍複雜多變、充滿挑戰,但隨著與中國大陸及國際的聯繫往返逐步復常,香港經濟有望重拾動力。

陳茂波寫道:「在編制下年度《財政預算案》時,我們一方面要繼續致力穩住和提振經濟,緩減市民和企業的壓力;另一方面亦要謀劃香港的長遠發展,並適當配置資源。」

香港政府財政司長陳茂波。(香港橙新聞)

香港2023/2024度《財政預算案》將於明年2月22日發布。


後話

明年會更好?並非明天會更好?今早恆指起步使跌了二百點。仍然是那句話「能守著萬九點已是萬幸了」!