筆者認為未來一年香港樓市復常最需要關注的因素是「財富效應」（包括最近九個月增加的2.1萬億港元的定期存款和接近七成供滿樓的住宅單位），這些都是可以隨時起動的購買力，但是不少人評論及分析樓市的因素卻往往忽略了有關重點！亦有很多人分析外圍因素，卻沒有討論到西去東來的大局，好像中美矛盾和角力並不存在，或者認為在經濟範疇上不存在鬥爭一樣，本文筆者想列舉一些數據分享究竟如何「西去」，內容不單只和投資有關，而且還會影響香港未來的角色及前景，以下數據十分容易明白，因為都只是一條加減數而已！
美債總額倍增下，海外持有美債的數量在過去10年期間只增加了1.6萬億美元左右，對比同期增加的美國國債只佔約1成，可謂少得可憐！美國在赤字日益嚴重之下，近期海外美債的總持有量已經開始下跌，美債難道只靠美國自己買回？顯然環球去美元的趨勢已經由「自己減持讓其他人去買」變為「大多數人都在減持」！下一步會否鬥快劈價甚至互相踐踏？西去東來自然是等於西方的得益下降，東方的利益上升，香港未來得益應該會不少才對，但是坐高速跑車在路上風馳電掣的同時，大家記住繫好安全帶！
2022年的樓市教懂了我們：原來悲情是可以趁著政策收縮而衝擊到樓市（縱使樓市的基礎結構沒有改變），但是如果我們誤以為這段時間樓市在實行了近十年的樓市辣招之下泡沫爆破的話，那筆者認為這是錯誤判斷，這個錯誤判斷極有可能令我們低估了未來市場復甦的活力及時間表，「龍市理論」仍然是較適合用於當下的新常態的，筆者認為樓價會逐步復常，根據鞏固的香港樓市結構去回應市場。
文章只屬作者觀點，不代表本網立場。
後話
有趣的數據論思維和經濟學邏輯。怎也好，實事求是。若真的西去東來了，別忘了港元與美元是仍在卦鈎，而儲備有幾多是美元值的。若全世界或西方世界不好，東方就必定好和超越現況經濟？？別忘了globalisation impacts. Anyway, always better to think out if the box, be wider and wiser?
不過，腦殘老人的我也許是全錯誤和落後了的！
Below are reference info for self analytical thinking:
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| it is written into 145 pages |
FACT SHEET: The President’s Budget for Fiscal Year 2023
Under the President’s leadership, America is on the move again. We created more than 6.5 million jobs in 2021, the most our country has ever recorded in a single year. Our economy grew at 5.7 percent, the strongest growth in nearly 40 years. And the unemployment rate has fallen to 3.8 percent, the fastest decline in recorded history. At the same time, the deficit fell last year—by around $300 billion. This progress was a direct result of the President’s strategy to grow the economy from the bottom up and the middle out and his effective management of the American Rescue Plan—a strategy that was built on smart, fiscally prudent investments that helped jumpstart our economy.
As our historic economic and labor market recovery continues, the President’s Budget projects that the deficit in 2022 will be more than $1.3 trillion lower than last year’s—the largest ever one-year decline in our country’s history. The strongest economic growth in four decades, powered by the American Rescue Plan, has also contributed to a historic decline in the deficit—by fueling strong revenue growth and allowing the Administration to responsibly phase down emergency pandemic-related spending.
Today, the President released a Budget that details his vision to expand on our economic and fiscal progress—investing in our economy and our people while cutting deficits, improving our country’s long-term fiscal outlook, and keeping the economic burden of debt low.
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